Top things to know this month
- There were 293K home sales across the US in January (a 1% increase YoY)
- The Home Sales Predictor report is predicting 299K home sales in February and 422K in March
- 2024 will likely be a modest year of home sales
I think it’s safe to say we’ve been plateauing for awhile now. Are we all ready to accept that this might just be our ‘new normal’? ‘This’ meaning a more modest number of home sales each month. More akin to the days of 2017, 2018.
As our Home Sales Predictor team met this month to discuss the numbers, we circled around the thought ‘is there really anything new to say?’ We’re in an interest rate-constrained market like we’ve been for months, and until that changes, not a whole lot else will.
So, if this is the new normal, what does that mean?
It means going back to basics. It means spending more time making the agents you currently have more productive (and only recruiting agents who are going to be productive). More agents doesn’t always mean more bucks. So in a world of compressing margins, let’s stop focusing on the wrong things and focus on the right ones.
We’re laser-focused on agent productivity and how to help our brokerage clients make their agents more productive. The ideal three-legged stool in this market should be recruit, make productive, and retain.
So, let’s see how productive MoxiWorks agents were last month…
In January we predicted 285K home sales across the US and we were off by 3% with a final total of 293K. Based on the uptick in January we’re updating our February prediction from last month to 299K, which would be a 2% increase month-over-month, but still an 11% decrease YoY.
Looking ahead to March, we do see things picking up a bit, and the model is predicting 422K closed listings. So while this is a 41% increase MoM (this means agents are upping their productivity and creating a lot more presentations right now), that’s still a 7% decrease YoY.
Like we said above, until something gives way on interest rates or inventory (which is obviously constrained by interest rates) this is our reality.
Brokers, be your agents’ guiding light. Give them the resources and guidance they need to find & win listings. Help them be proactive and productive. Not sure what else you should be doing? Check out guidance from our dear friend, Matthew Ferrara, or the awesome knowledge sharing happening on Mike DelPrete’s podcast, Context, or the daily rundown of all the business insights around the industry via the BAM Hot Sheet, or check out the hundreds of articles, webinars and podcasts on our content center.
Same goes for agents. Your clients need you as their expert. They need to feel like they can trust your knowledge and that you’ve got them covered. Take the things you are learning from your broker and fellow agents, and share those insights with them. In this market quality informative communication will be the key to success.
Until next month.
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Catch up on the most recent Home Sales Predictor reports:
January 2024 Home Sales Predictor
December 2023 Home Sales Predictor
November 2023 Home Sales Predictor
Home Sales Predictor
This data correlates user activity within MoxiWorks products to the predicted number of closed listings two months into the future. Learn more about, or subscribe to, the Home Sales Predictor.